An interesting paper on #Ukraine #migration into #Poland with very interesting findings:

We examine the impact of two massive and unexpected inflows of Ukrainians on voting behavior in Poland. The two migration shocks, caused by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, allow us to disentangle the effects of conflict induced labor migration from those of refugee inflows. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that greater exposure to labor migrants reduces support for conservative parties in the short run and subsequently shifts voter preferences toward pro-redistribution parties. We do not find similar effects for refugees, who, unlike temporary labor migrants, had access to social benefits. However, exposure to both types of Ukrainian migration leads to a decrease in far-right voting. This effect emerges only after the salience of Ukrainian migrants increases due to the escalation of Russia’s aggression and the rise of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric from the Polish far-right. The backlash from Polish voters against the far-right rhetoric is ten times stronger in areas exposed to refugees than to labor migrants. Our results are robust to the use of a number of instruments and several sensitivity checks.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5223038

#Poland PiS government declassified and published parts of 2011 Polish military doctrine, highlighting one fragment which planned retreat towards Vistula river and holding a defense line there.

The sole purpose of this publication was to bash PiS largest political opponent — PO, who was in power back then — and imply they would give up half of Poland instantly (the message is conveniently presented with limited details to prevent its verification).

And that's the essence of Polish politics unfortunately — bash your opponent at literally any cost, even if it involves revealing and misrepresenting state secrets, thus demolishing the very concept of state continuity and preservation of state policy regardless and above of tribal wars.

It's not the first time PiS did it — in 2006-2007 they published a massive "report on military intelligence", whom they accused of being "post-communist" and in the report they happily revealed plenty of operational details including sources of information. The report gained huge popularity in #Russia, not surprisingly, but also a lot of raised eyebrows on the stupidity of such transparency, which compromised Polish sources e.g. in Afghanistan.

This PiS publication also gained plenty of interest in Russia and Ukraine, with comments ridiculing "cowardice" of Polish army. The harm to the reputation of Polish command, Poland's defense forces and Polish state on its own is immense, but this has never stopped them before.