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Couldn't a country's solution to the #COVID pandemic be to cease most activity, work, school, travel, everything for about 14 days, salaries paid up to a certain ceiling, and them from then on, closely monitor travelers? We've known about the contagious period length for a while.
many countries did that. But unfortunately the data has shown that the period must be broader than 14-days. You have to account for intra-family transmission and also for unlawful behaviour that still transmits the virus.

And I don't know how feasible would be to cease all activity. So you will still have some transmission happening, and you'll need to broaden the quarantine period a bit more.

And after you open, the virus would be still there, and will become a problem again soon.
What prompted my question is that governments around the world have been trying half-measures for almost a year now, with predictably low success either preventing deaths or further spread. And then I read about Wuhan, dubbed the fisrt major "post-COVID city", which I remember had pretty strict public health policies.

So it isn't as simple as I said of course, but it looks like it's possible.
In my opinion, comparing the case of a chinese city where things are more state controlled to our western-democracy countries is difficult. If the same measures were applied to a western democracy, the outcries would be huge and governments would lose public support with even more devastating results.

Unfortunately, people in western democracies don't accept such strict measures easily and governments must rely more on individual responsibility.
I completely agree with you, but it sill is hard to watch strong individual liberties tearing apart countries like the US in the context of a pandemic. Individual responsibility has been a complete and utter failure in this context.
I agree, but we have to do with that. Unfortunately (or fortunately) democracies are based on individual responsibility. You get more freedoms, but you also must be more responsible on what you do with them.

But I strongly believe that losing that attitude, will be a negative spiral that will lead us to more controlled states, loss of personal liberties etc.
I agree this is a fine line to thread, and ultimately it depends on the trust people have in their government, which is much harder to achieve in multi-million people countries.
Exactly!

Thanks for the conversation, these exchange of ideas are really important.
But, @Hypolite Petovan. won't someone think about the economyyyyyy!!! (read with desperate mother voice)
Yep, that would have been the most reasonable thing to do...
Also I would take any stories of success from China with a grain of salt. We don't really know what really goes out there.
The New York Times published a portrait of Wuhan post-pandemic three days ago, and while I disagree with their coverage of certain political topics, their journalists aren't used to lie: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/22/world/asia/wuhan-china-coronavirus.html
Not journalists of course. However without verifiable official statistics we can't know full picture. It just looks too good to be true.

As they write in that article:
Writers and independent journalists who even mildly challenge the glowing official accounts of Wuhan’s crisis have been vilified in Chinese media, detained or even imprisoned.
And I don't think this changed since that time they are referring to.
Inconvenient as it may be for people attached to personal freedom and democracy like myself, authoritarianism has the advantage of ruthless efficiency in some cases like a contagious pandemic.

And while cases/death number reports have been questionable in China as well as several Western countries (including the US), the first-person account in the New York Times article doesn't leave much to governmental censorship: Wuhan isn't stuck in a perpetual limbo with conflicting public health recommendations, vaccine shortage, half-lockdowns or evening curfews, closed restaurants (except for rich people) as I know is happening in the US and France.

The article doesn't paint a completely glowing report either, there certainly is personal grief going around, but in the context of this pandemic, I believe the authoritarian approach to lock down all activity, even for 76 days, then test and track everyone, was the right move. It doesn't invalidate my personal criticism of Chinese policies as a whole, but I believe it needs to be noted.
Well, we don't have closed restaurants here. In fact we don't have much of restrictions at all. Employers are encouraged to make people work from home if they can and face masks are obligatory in public areas but that's about it. Some of other measures are either impossible to enforce (physical distancing in rush hour subway?) or simply idiotic and thus sabotaged (e.g requirement to wear gloves in shops) and what makes sense isn't strictly enforced.

Despite all that stats are pretty average. However if you don't know stats you won't notice much of pandemic going on. Corpses are not piling up in the streets figuratively speaking. It doesn't mean there are no victims, it is just not very visible. And I suspect strong government like Chinese could make it almost invisible.

Maybe I am too skeptical :)
How visible does it need to be for you to be ready to temporarily concede some of your personal freedom (mostly freedom of movement in this case)?

I have barely left my apartment in 10 months as a personal decision to avoid spreading the virus both to the people I know and the ones I don't, and I've been pretty disheartened to hear about rich people not caring in the slightest while poor people still have to work around.
Just to clarify: by saying "not very visible" I didn't imply it was unimportant and/or could be ignored. I only want to say that when less restrictive measures are taken the pandemic draws not much attention from individuals unless they meet with it personally.

So I wouldn't be surprised if certain government could successfully deny pandemic going on if they had it in relatively mild form. To prove them wrong you would need access to medical statistics and inside hospital wards. As for optics... you can take similar pictures here. Also you can find here a lot of people ready to believe that covid-19 is over. Yet it is not. And of course you can also ask actual doctors who work with patients... but what if you couldn't?

So I am a little skeptical about Wuhan shining victory as they present it. Maybe I am wrong. I'll gladly accept that :)
Ah, I see what you mean. Well, the 76-days lockdown doesn't sound artificially downplayed or exaggerated for propaganda purposes and we know from other countries that it is possible to have a more correct response to the pandemic than most Western countries have been having to limit its spread and deaths.

Which brings me to two conclusions:
  • As the epicenter of the pandemic, it would be logical that Wuhan would also be the first location to get rid of it, especially after taking such drastic measures that can't really be construed as propaganda, regardless of the numbers that can.
  • Many Western governments don't really care about their people getting infected and potentially dying as long as the wheels of the economy are seen turning.
This entry was edited (3 years ago)
We don't really know what really goes out there.
We don't know what really goes out in other places either.