Putin's war is not going well. It never has. Russia has a problem even getting enough weapons. It's getting more from a nation that can't even feed itself: North Korea.

Nevertheless, Putin has strategic nuclear weapons. As he becomes more desperate to make his war succeed, he could do something monumentally stupid. That worries me.

It seems unlikely now that he can persuade the majority of Ukrainians that he can be their friend. He's killed too many Ukrainians. Before he invaded, he might have found a way to persuade Ukraine not to align itself with either western Europe or Russia and remain neutral. Now it seems too late. The invasion was a mistake.