Doc Edward Morbius (moved to Glasswings)

2021-04-20 19:01:35

COVID-19 -- April 2021 observations

I'm following (and commenting on) COVID-19 less closely and often these days, though the situation remains concerning. Some general observations:

Novel variations are increasing prevalent, and will likely continue to emerge. Add another argument to the denialists: the more that a virus spreads, the more it will mutate, and the more likely mutations will have significant impacts on further transmission or course. Several current mutations are 1) now the dominant strains in many regions, 2) transmit far more effectively, 3) have more severe symptoms, and 4) affect different population segments (notably the young). Until COVID-19 is largely controlled such variants will likely continue to emerge and spread. Any more-transmissable variants tend to become more prevalent in areas, and many regions of rapid current spread seem to be based on such mutations.

India is experiencing what appears to be completely uncontrolled spread. The number of new cases is doubling every 8-10 days, characteristic of early COVID's unconstrained growth rate, and is likely the maximum rate of spread for the disease. (One desperately hopes.) The US saw a new daily case report peak of 307,000 on January 8, 2021, likely compounded by holiday and testing delays, though the growth was already clearly plateauing and the 7-day average peaked a few days later at "only" 255,000. India yesterday reported 275,000 cases, and is still climbing rapidly. It will peak well above the top US rate, reaching 550,000 cases/day within 10 days, and over 1,000,000/day within 15--20, at present rates of growth. (That conditional isn't a minor one, rates of growth can and have changed rapidly before, including in India's last growth surge during August--September 2010.)

Brazil's situation remains bad, though growth has leveled off. It's simply not declining, as forecasts have long suggested it would. Turkey has also seen rapid and uncontrolled growth.

Vaccinations are increasingly available in the US and Europe. Throughout the US, eligibility extends to all above 50 years, or in some cases above 16 years. (Children and infants are less susceptible to severe COVID-19, and vaccine safety and efficacy haven't been thoroughly assessed, though suitability seesm likely.) Given the very limited shelf-life of vaccine, registered candidates may receive short notice, as little as 15--30 minutes, of availability, typically late in the day (after 4pm local time). BE READY TO MOVE IF CONTACTED. Once you've had your first shot, you'll be automatically enrolled in a 2nd-shot follow-up 14--21 days later. If you've not already registered for a vaccine, do so now. Typically your healthcare provider, local government (city or county), drugstores (both CVS and Wallgreens in the US), and perhaps other providers are available. There is no charge for the vaccine within the US.

Vaccine availability outside these regions remains low. This is problematic, and it's quite likely we'll be living with COVID conditions and limitations for years. At least one more year, and quite possibly more. Poorer nations are getting the blunt end of this.

Regions which have weathered COVID-19 well are starting to show vulnerability, notably in east and southeast Asia. Taiwan, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam have seen case spikes. Some of these are transient, and are amplified due to the low case floor. Some are not. Unfortunately, continued vigelance is essential, and idiots claiming that "emergencies don't last years" or similar bullshit are quite literally costing lives.

Some mitigation guidelines are being relaxed, some aren't. Wearing masks and minimising social contacts remain highly advisible. The risks from surface-based transmission appear slight, though these are also readily mitigated by simple and cheap measures (e.g., alcohol sanitiser). Science is a process of evolving understanding as best supported by evidence. The change is actually a sign the process is working as intended. Again, idiots like to claim otherewise. They are wrong, and they are killing people.

Reporting sites are changing their focus, some are being discontinued. As the pandemic evolves, some early measures (e.g., R~0~ or R~t~) are less applicable. Short-term measures (daily rates) tend to obscure more than they reveal, and some sites have moved to emphasizing weekly rates. Population-relative ratios are also more useful than raw counts. Again, with time anad understanding the sense of whiich metrics make most sense evolves. You may find your bookmarked links (or mine) are no longer being updated. I continue to rely principally on Worldometers.

Even once vaccinated, additional protections will be necessary for your own and others' safety. Vacination isn't total proof against COVID-19 (the best vaccines seem to be about 95% effective, so there's a 1:20 chance of contracting the disease), though severity of the disease if fully vaccinated is vastly lower. It may still be possible to transmit COVID-19 to others, so if you're living or interacting with those who are not (or can not be) vaccinated, there's that risk. And mutations may be able to "break through" the vaccine, compounded by a weakening long-term immunity. Long-term we'll likely have COVID-19 booster vaccines at least for a few years.

**After the ongoing train-wreck of the previous administration's incompetence, the Biden Administration seems to be addressing both public health and economic concerns of the pandemic with vastly greater effectiveness.* One hopes that trust in institutions can be both restored and sustained over the long term. The US political situation remains a very-barely-contained shitshow, though at least the far more able party are in control, at the Federal level, for now.

In the US, there's a general expectation of far more permissable activity by June. This won't be a full return to normalcy, but many activities which have been entirely restricted should be at least possible. But this is going to be a slog. Predictions of full vaccination vary and change, though "late summer" seems to be the general concensus.

Numerous of my worse fears, and higher hopes, have not materialised. Predition is hard, especially about the future. And where humans are involved. But this thing will be with us for a while, though the picture should be generally brightening.

#covid19